Author Topic: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?  (Read 14743 times)

dzstroker

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1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« on: October 09, 2007, 09:10:46 PM »
does any one know the total production #'s for the 1969 rs z28 camaro? thanks frank
1969 HUGGER ORANGE RS Z28 PROJECT

william

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2007, 12:31:16 AM »
No. Chevy published production totals for Z/28, RS, but not in combination.

Statistical interpolations are worthless.
Learning more and more about less and less...

Iluv69s

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2007, 06:03:28 PM »
That's easy....coorect me if I'm wrong....According to statistics, Chevy made 20,302 Z-28's in 69...also made 37,773 Rally Sports...if we use percentage statistics...and assume that atleast 50% of all early camaros are now destroyed, that would make approx. 75,000 Rally Sport Z-28's driving on the road today...and atleast 25,000 are no. matching and have protecto-plate.... ??? ??? ???

VI009DZ

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2007, 02:35:28 PM »
That's easy....coorect me if I'm wrong....According to statistics, Chevy made 20,302 Z-28's in 69...also made 37,773 Rally Sports...if we use percentage statistics...and assume that atleast 50% of all early camaros are now destroyed, that would make approx. 75,000 Rally Sport Z-28's driving on the road today...and atleast 25,000 are no. matching and have protecto-plate.... ??? ??? ???

I fully agree......

69 Z11

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2007, 11:25:49 PM »
Statistical interpolations are worthless.
This is very true.  We have no way of knowing whether or not Rally Sports, for example, were equally distributed through out the entire number of Camaros built.  But, statistical interpolations are kind of fun to do anyway, so so for our new curious owner above:

Let's say we have a big jar full of all the Camaros made in 1969 (243,085).  We know that there are 20,302 Z/28's in there.  If you could reach into the jar and pull out a Camaro, the odds that you would pull out a Z/28 are about 1 in 12 (20,302/243,085).  To pull out a Rally Sport the odds are about 1 in 6 (37,773/243,085).  These are valid statistics because the numbers are known.  Now, just for fun, let's assume that the Rally Sport option IS equally distributed throughout all of the Camaros in the jar, i.e., a normal distribution.  This is assuming that it's just as likely that any Camaro made would have the RS option.  For example, this assumes that plain jane 6 cylinder Camaros were just as likely to get the RS option as a Z/28, or an SS, or a convertible, or any other 1969 Camaro.  We know that's probably not true, but let's assume it is for now.  So then, the probability of pulling out a Rally Sport Z/28 out of the jar is .013 (20,302/243,085 * 37,773/243,085) or about 1 in 77.  So, using only one assumption (and it's a big one), we could guess that there would have been only about 3,160 Rally Sport Z/28s made in 1969 (0.13*243,085).  If the assumption is not too far off from reality, a real RS Z/28 is fairly rare. 
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1968RSZ28

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2007, 05:01:02 AM »
Let's say we have a big jar full of all the Camaros made in 1969 (243,085).  We know that there are 20,302 Z/28's in there.  If you could reach into the jar and pull out a Camaro, the odds that you would pull out a Z/28 are about 1 in 12 (20,302/243,085).  To pull out a Rally Sport the odds are about 1 in 6 (37,773/243,085).  These are valid statistics because the numbers are known.  Now, just for fun, let's assume that the Rally Sport option IS equally distributed throughout all of the Camaros in the jar, i.e., a normal distribution.  This is assuming that it's just as likely that any Camaro made would have the RS option.  For example, this assumes that plain jane 6 cylinder Camaros were just as likely to get the RS option as a Z/28, or an SS, or a convertible, or any other 1969 Camaro.  We know that's probably not true, but let's assume it is for now.  So then, the probability of pulling out a Rally Sport Z/28 out of the jar is .013 (20,302/243,085 * 37,773/243,085) or about 1 in 77.  So, using only one assumption (and it's a big one), we could guess that there would have been only about 3,160 Rally Sport Z/28s made in 1969 (0.13*243,085).  If the assumption is not too far off from reality, a real RS Z/28 is fairly rare. 

Cool 69 Z11!     8)

So, a 1968 Rally Sport Z/28 is even rarer and a 1967 Rally Sport Z/28 rarer than that!    ;D    ;D    ;D

Any chance you could do the same statistical interpolations for RS Z/28s in the '68 and '67 models years?    ::)

Paul

69 Z11

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2007, 05:47:20 AM »
Sure, again, just for fun.  Let’s look at 68 first:  For 1968 there were 235,147 Camaros made, and of that number 40,977 were Rally Sports and 7199 Z/28s.  The calculation is:

(40,977/235,147 * 7199/235,147) * 235,147 = 1254. 

So, if the assumption is reasonable, a ballpark estimate of the number of 68 RS Z/28s made in 68 is 1,254.  And please, please, please, remember this is just an estimate.  These numbers based on a gross assumption.  I’m sure there are plenty of people that would argue that our assumption is wrong.  For example, I’m sure some people might say that the RS option was a “luxury” option and there would be far less ordered on Z/28s than on regular Camaros.

That brings us to the 67s.  Even I don’t think the assumption would be valid for 67.  What I mean is, in 1969, with over 20,000 being ordered, I'm sure there were plenty of Z\28s ordered for racing, but there had to be a lot of regular people ordering Z's because they were cool, and by then, a lot of the public had heard about Zs.  In 1967, the public didn't really know about Z/28s and I suspect that most of the 67's were ordered by racers or people with factory connections.  Some of you 67 guys on here can tell me if that is right. So, I don't think many racers would want to add the weight and cost of the RS option so an assumption that sounds plausible for the 69s is probably not a good one for the 67s.  I'm not really a 67 and 68 guy so anyone feel free to put your 2 cents in here.

Anyway, I still think it’s fun to run through this stuff and see if the numbers make sense.  Until we get better data, it’s the best guess we can make.
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Jerry@CHP

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2007, 01:00:58 PM »
I have pretty accurate stats on the RS Z28s in our 67 and 68 Z28 fact book.  45% of the 67 Z28s were rally sports.  I also have many other stat break downs on the statistics page in the book.  We have 1/3 of the 67 Z popluation in the registry.

As being someone who lived the era, many did not like the RS change in 1969.  The 67-68 style RS cars were more appealing to the general Camaro population at the time.  However, there were quite a few RS 69 Z28s in the Baltimore area when they came out. 

Jerry

sd1968z28

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2007, 01:20:35 PM »
hi jerry, i here there is a guy in your nrck of the woods interested in my z28.  thanks jason from south dakota.

jdv69z

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2007, 02:56:11 PM »
A  reasonable statistical analysis for the 69 RS (like the ones done by Jerry for 67 & 68) would work if there was a big enough data base of actual cars correct? How many documented cars of the total would that take? 10% of the total Z/28 population or 2030 cars. Would that work?

Jimmy V.
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1968RSZ28

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2007, 04:06:54 PM »
Sure, again, just for fun.  Let’s look at 68 first:  For 1968 there were 235,147 Camaros made, and of that number 40,977 were Rally Sports and 7199 Z/28s.  The calculation is:

(40,977/235,147 * 7199/235,147) * 235,147 = 1254. 

So, if the assumption is reasonable, a ballpark estimate of the number of 68 RS Z/28s made in 68 is 1,254.  And please, please, please, remember this is just an estimate.  These numbers based on a gross assumption.  I’m sure there are plenty of people that would argue that our assumption is wrong.  For example, I’m sure some people might say that the RS option was a “luxury” option and there would be far less ordered on Z/28s than on regular Camaros.

Thanks 69 Z11!  I know it's just an estimate, but it sounds alot better when I tell my friends my car is 1 out of 1254 built (compared to 1 out of 7199 built).    ;D    ;D

Paul

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2007, 10:04:18 PM »
Thanks for the insight, Jerry.  I would have never expected that.  I should buy your book and get more educated about the early years :D.

45% of 602 would be 271. 

Using the same methodology for 1967 as I used for 1968 and 1969 would yield:

(64,842/220,906 * 602/220,906) * 220,906 =  177  (only about 29%)

Statistically speaking, that’s not really too bad of a guess, since it’s only off by 16%.  The lesson here is to take these estimates with a grain of salt.

“Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more piable”, Mark Twain


Jerry S.
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Jerry@CHP

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2007, 02:01:12 AM »
Where people miss the mark on using statistics are on the rare cars like an L89 Camaro convertible. 

Some have stated that only two were built.  I can tell you that there were more than two built because there were
more then that running in the NHRA stock and super stock classes back
when the cars were new.  As in the case with the Ray Allen Chevelle, racers bought certain
model cars such as the L89 in a convertible body to make a different
weight break in the various classes.  In many ways this became an
advantage for some classes in NHRA racing.  It was RACERS who ordered and
bought these cars anyway.  Most dealers and the average Camaro enthusiast
didn't know about the ultra rare engine options. 

Jerry


69 Z11

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Re: 1969 rs z28 production #'s?
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2007, 05:25:54 AM »
That's a good point.  There has to be a large enough population for the statistics to be valid.  I've tried to calculate the probabilities of some of the odd and/or rare combinations and the calculations fall apart almost immediately.

And nothing beats good old empirical data from some who was there!
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