Is there any logical way to calculate survival rate ,of certain camaros, based on the CRG data base..
Not really. The data collection is not uniform. And lots of cars that are in garages that are not in the db.
See my post here: http://www.camaros.org/forum/index.php?topic=5444.msg173668#msg173668
I have been logging '69 data for decades. These are cars that definitely exist.
My auction db has 2,223 [net] cars, on-line db has 2,787: 5,010. When I combine the auction and on-line db about 7.5% are in both. Net 4,634.
CRG db has data on 7,081 '69s. As Kurt has stated, many entries are data only. Cars not known to exist. Lets call it 33%. So that's 4,673. Of the remainder, 14% of auction/on-line cars are also in the db. So that's 4,020 net '69s.
4,634 + 4,020 = 8,654. Let's say for every '69 known, there are two that aren't: 25,962 including the full range from perfect original to junk. That's a little over 10% of '69 production. I have a hard time believing it could be higher; it is more likely to be lower.
I regularly see new entries on line and in auction results. However, I also see the same cars over and over. 37% of '69s at auction have run more than once; 3-4 times is common. One COPO in particular has been run 8 times. On-line, same story.
I'm no stats wizard so feel free to challenge these numbers.
'I' would think any vintage car would have a 50% (or less) survival rate. Wrecked, scrapped, parted out, crushed, etc. That said, the very popular models (Camaro, Mustang, etc), MAY have a better survival rate among car people because of demand. This site, along with the devoted members do keep records and the popularity of these cars alive.
The "very popular models" have a high survival rate, defined as SS, Z/28, converts. I think we have data on nearly 30% of Z11 production. The average '69 Camaro is just that.
Industry stats show that by age 12, less than 20% still exist.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-diagram-of-vehicle-survival-ratio-and-scrappage-rate-functions_fig1_226620148
There is no way 50% of 1st Gen Camaros still exist. I have been involved with '69s for 46 years, seen many in salvage yards, put a bunch there myself. Had many other colleagues doing the same. I picked the dash and axle out of a Yenko Camaro sitting in a junkyard, 1981. Wasn't wrecked, just tired. No one cared. Same yard had many '69s over the years.
In the early 80's we took wrecked and rusty Z28's, GTO's, and 442's to the scrap yard that are orders of magnitude better than the 6cyl cars I see guys start with today.
When scrap metal got so high back in 08-09 many yards and stashes were cleaned out, I saw car after car being drug into the scrap metal processor - IMP - industrial metal processing - next door.
We sold them 9k worth of scrap steel industrial machinery parts including a single roll 110" wide which weighed 25,000#, 15k in scrap copper wiring packed into gaylords & another 30k in AL scrap that we had accumulated for years in our side yard.
Fakes and rebodies further compromise the results.
Back in the 1980s, I would frequent Pick a Part in LA. Back then, so many neat Muscle Cars were (no pun) getting picked clean. Some were wrecks, some were impounded cars, most were owner turn ins. From what I remember on their TV commercials, Pick a Part would come out to your home, pay you $110 bucks and haul 'em away! Imagine today seeing all of those Camaro Z/28s, 442s, Mach-1s, SS Chevelles, etc waiting to be rescued!
We would visit the pick a parts while in So CA for the Pomona swap 80s-90s. Saw ONE '69 in a yard, another in the fenced in area in the yard near the Ontario airport. That's it. Between Z & Z and Ralphs, they ended up with most 1st Gens. Many Chevelle 2 door hard tops, Novas, but no SS cars by then.
Found a '67 Z/28 in a PA yard, roof smashed flat. Still had a body tag.
Anyone remember 'Marv's Chevy Only'? They were just down the street from the Pick a Part in Sun Valley.
Black cars, especially black Z/28's, have an amazingly high survival rate :)
Still making them.
Dave Beem bought a Gold 67 Z28 with the 4L TT out of a wrecking yard in Colorado, in the late 80's I believe, latest was maybe the early 90's. The price was late 80's wrecking yard shell prices for any random solid 67 coupe IIRC $800.
I paid $1500 (which included a pair of NOS fenders) at that same time 88-89ish for a complete non running 68 RS/SS 396 project - lemans blue blue dlx
10 10 X33 tags are the most reproduced Tag by far-it's so bad that it seems like more than half the people who own a 10 10 X33 69 Z don't own one with a real tag, and if equipped with an endura, JL8, cowl induction, and hounds tooth - chances are about 100:1 that it's fake.
When I see a black 69 Z28 from an unknown origin I view it with great skepticism, honestly I just assume it's fake until it -the car- proves otherwise. - If I look at the tag and it's real and has no signs of removal I start looking for evidence of how it should be equipped, the more correct the more confident I become the car is legit.
Quote from: crossboss on April 14, 2021, 09:10:24 PM
Anyone remember 'Marv's Chevy Only'? They were just down the street from the Pick a Part in Sun Valley.
Yep
Still a few REAL 10 10 Z/28s out there.
I have one. Thankfully, it is an X77 car, which isn't counterfeited as often.
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