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Author Topic: Economic Experts?  (Read 4571 times)
IZRSSS
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« on: December 21, 2010, 06:12:42 PM »

I put some numbers together for what my car would have sold for back in '69. These numbers are based on CRG's RPO's. The total cost for the car is $4,258.68. I am trying to figure out relative values in today's market. The link below was the only source I could find on-line...I could not make heads or tails out of a spread of 24K to 61K. Can anyone help?

http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/result.php?use%5B%5D=DOLLAR&use%5B%5D=GDPDEFLATION&use%5B%5D=VCB&use%5B%5D=UNSKILLED&use%5B%5D=MANCOMP&use%5B%5D=NOMGDPCP&use%5B%5D=NOMINALGDP&year_source=1969&amount=4258.68&year_result=2010
« Last Edit: December 21, 2010, 06:34:58 PM by IZRSSS » Logged
lakeholme
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2010, 09:24:29 PM »

How about $49,587.89?
69 cost (your figure) * relative 2010 $ + appreciation (69 SRP vs 10 SRP) + inflation average 69 to 10
How's that for an impressive SWAG calculation? It puts the value around 9K above the nominal  GDP.
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Phillip
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IZRSSS
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2010, 09:37:56 PM »

Very impressive my friend...Not only are you the Senior Master, you are the SWAG Master!  Grin Grin Grin

I digress...thanks Phillip. I really needed this info for you know what...MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AND YOURS!
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9T4Z
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2010, 12:52:05 PM »

Hey I like numbers...

Using the CPI spreadsheet (Consumer price index) for 2009.....

You would need $24,760.00 at the end of 2009 to equal the buying power of $4258.68 in 1969.

That would get you a nicely decked out Chevy Cruze...... which would incorporate tons of technological advancements unheard of forty years ago.  A 2010 Camaro is twice as expensive as a 69 Camaro for those same reasons.

Or if you look at it another way, selling the 69 for $49K, you've doubled your investment.  OOPS... now we gotta subtract the maintenance, restoration and preservation costs over forty years and I doubt if very many people really see profit in 'investing' in Classic cars.
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Gary 9T4Z

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IZRSSS
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« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2010, 04:09:14 PM »

Nope...I like Phillip's version better. Wink

Here's why...my '69 has a Am/Fm "Blue Light" stereo (one of 20 options that came with the car), and cost $239.10. If you use the conversion in the link above, a comparable price for '09 is $1,450.00. I think you are a little shy with your calculations. 
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lakeholme
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2010, 07:48:59 PM »

Interesting....  Wink

When I apply the appreciation factor which I "deduced" (another SWAG term) for First Gens, we are less than $100 apart!   Shocked

40 years of technological advancements?!? Maybe 30 years, but you've got to discount for 80's cars!  Roll Eyes
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Phillip
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2010, 10:05:33 PM »

Nope...I like Phillip's version better. Wink

Here's why...my '69 has a Am/Fm "Blue Light" stereo (one of 20 options that came with the car), and cost $239.10. If you use the conversion in the link above, a comparable price for '09 is $1,450.00. I think you are a little shy with your calculations. 

I don't understand what you mean?  Sound system upgrades in cars today carry that price tag.  So are you saying that the calculation is too low?  Are you wanting the extrapolated value of your car to be higher?  If I read you right, then pick $100K... whatever.  Wink
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Gary 9T4Z

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IZRSSS
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2010, 11:20:33 PM »

Gary,

If you had an extra $4,258.00 in the 60's to splurge with, your options would have included not only Camaros, but the following automobiles as well; Corvettes, any of Ford Shelby GT's, Mercedes, BMW's, Alfa Romeo's, Austin Healey's, and the list goes on. If this was true back then, wouldn't the same hold true today? What you have indicated by your statement, is the amount, $4,258.00 in 1969 would be the equivlent of a entry level, off the wall car in today's market. Something just doesn't add up.

In addition, perhaps my initial question was a bit misleading. All I am looking for are equivlent purchasing comps between '69 & 2010 prices. The Consumer Price Index/Inflation Conversion might not be the best application here.  
« Last Edit: December 28, 2010, 11:51:33 PM by IZRSSS » Logged
9T4Z
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2010, 09:48:30 AM »

I am not disagreeing with you Marty, I see your point.  CPI is just an average of a basket of items and measures purchasing power in relative terms to that basket. Includes fuel, housing , energy food etc.

What you are looking for is more specific.  Artwork has appreciated far more than CPI.  I would assume that you'd be looking for the equivalent metric for 'classic cars'?  I only meant to point out that $4,258 in 69, has the equivalent purchasing power of $24K by the end of 2009.  So more to your point, if your car is worth say $49K then you've doubled the average inflation rate. That's good. And if that Porsche is now worth $100K they have done even better.

My choices in 1969 were not just limited to automobiles. I may have elected to purchase a rare book,a painting, or a 100 ounces of gold. The gold would now be worth `$100K and it would be all profit, no cost.

 I was merely pointing out that some investments are less costly to maintain.   Hagerty used to show a chart for 'collectible car' appreciation but I can't find the link.

Cheers
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Gary 9T4Z

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mopar346
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« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2010, 10:18:28 AM »

If you had bought Coca Cola stock it would be worth 4 million. We see this discussion all the time on the Mopar sites. The fact is, they are cars, a hobby or a toy. They were designed to get you from point a to point b, and soem very quickly and with style. Bu they are still cars and should be driven like they were designed. Don't get me wrong but you have to recognize and be responsible to the investment, but they are cars. When you were first attracted to cars was it due to the investment factor or the profit you could make or was it cause it looked or sounded bad, could you see the potential of what a great ride it could be. If it was for profit then get the hell out of my hobby (generic, not towards anyone). There are too may check book restorers in this hobby driving cost to an unrealistic level for the guy who just loves cars. I've done OK and can afford stuff, but I have had most of my stuff for years before the market got stupid. I have not been without at least 1 high HP car since before I was 16 and don't every see a time that I wont have one. My concern is for the kid who loves cars not the investor who might not make a required percentage.

Now with that over, the OP seems to be a car guy so it was not directed at him or anyone else that I have come across on this board. It is just a touchy subject with me, so I rant.

See ya
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IZRSSS
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2010, 10:39:45 AM »

Thanks Gary, this was exactly what I was searching for. Please keep me posted with regards to the Hagerty info.

M346...I understand your frustration. However, you have taken the original intent of this discussion far beyond its means. My concerns have absolutely nothing to do with the investment value of my car or any other car for that matter. I think we all know this is an impossible question to answer.

Plain and simple...What type of car can a person buy in today's market place that was comparable to the same types of cars, for the same amount of money in 1969? If this too is an impossible question to answer, I am okay with that...  
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mopar346
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2010, 06:08:19 PM »

As stated, my comments were not directed at anyone and yes, I recognized it as a rant on a personally touchy subject.

To answer the question as originally ask, what is the price of a like new 69 Camaro equivalent to yours? What would a 2010 Camaro closely optioned cost. That I would think is your answer.


And I never thought private threats were necessary.
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IZRSSS
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« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2010, 08:08:49 PM »

I like your answer. Unfortunately it isn't that simple. Many of the options back in 69 were both new, and relatively new advances in technology. In order to get a true comparison, the 2010 Camaro would need the same advances outside the norm. And...that's not going to happen because options offered in the new Camaro have been around for quite sometime.

Perhaps this was a dumb thread to begin with, but my hope was that someone would have the magic formula. At any rate, my apologies if I offended anyone.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2010, 09:29:26 PM by IZRSSS » Logged
firstgenaddict
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2011, 12:23:40 PM »

$4258 bought 121 OZ of Gold in 1969...
121 OZ x $1300 + = $157,300+
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James
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2011, 01:29:46 PM »

In 69 US Citizens were not allowed to own gold as an investment, and the value was designated by the government, not by supply and demand as it is now.
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IZRSSS
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« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2011, 02:56:45 PM »

$4258 bought 121 OZ of Gold in 1969...
121 OZ x $1300 + = $157,300+


I have no idea why this topic strayed off into the gold market. Please keep in mind...this question has absolutely nothing to do with investment potential.  In the most basic of terms...What would $1.00 buy you in 1969? And...What would this same item cost you in 2010?  

Perhaps this question needs to be addressed by an Economic expert, hence the title of this thread, "Economic Expert?". I am absolutely certain there is a conversion for determining equivalent buying power (dollar's) for 1969 as it relates to 2010. I think I'll give this question to my son who is a Senior in college. If he can't answer this perhaps he can give to one of his professors. If this information becomes available I will post my findings.

Thanks for your statement Tom.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2011, 03:31:56 PM by IZRSSS » Logged
Dusk_Blue_Z
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« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2011, 03:33:18 PM »

Marty, the CPI (like Gary pointed out) is the broadest measure used to track purchasing power. It might not capture every variance in prices, but its the 'generally accepted' methodology for tracking purchasing power.

I agree that it might sound odd that the same amount of money in 69 will only get you a Chevy Cruise today, but that just might be telling us a Camaro today is grossly overpriced (or a 69 Camaro in the day was grossly underpriced).

As far as technology advances are concerned, they are essentially 'baked into' the CPI figure.

If you're looking for dollar purchasing power, CPI is what to use.

FWIW, I was an Econ and Finance major, so I love this stuff.
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1969 X77 01B 51 51 flat hood
IZRSSS
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« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2011, 06:23:51 PM »

Thank you DBZ for sharing this information. However, I respectfully disagree with the use of CPI for this application (as I stated earlier). Just stating that technological advances are "baked into the figure" only drives me to find a more appropriate measure. As advanced as our society is (I obviously missed the boat on this one) you would think there is something out there much more accurate to go on. If there isn't such a measure, then perhaps this would be an excellent idea for an Economic thesis.

  
« Last Edit: January 17, 2011, 07:33:56 PM by IZRSSS » Logged
lakeholme
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« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2011, 07:00:34 PM »

NADA Guides still has a classic guide. I thought it was gone like Gold Book.
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Phillip
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IZRSSS
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« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2011, 07:16:31 PM »

Here it is...the only information asked is; Year-1969, Engine size-350, and is it RS or SS. No other options are included in this price...http://www.nadaguides.com/Classic-Cars/1969/Chevrolet/Camaro-Super-Sport/2-Door-Coupe/Values.

You can see by these totals how skewed CPI really is.

Thanks Phillip
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Dusk_Blue_Z
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« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2011, 07:28:53 PM »

Marty, I'm sure someone has done some sort of work tracking the historic purchasing power of a dollar on a certain item (maybe the price of the deck of cards over the past 30 years). But that price change data is only good on that item (ie, a deck of cards). There might be some correlation between that item and another item, but you couldn't apply that data to a Camaro for instance, since the Camaro would probably follow a different price pattern.

But what you could do is (if one had the data), compare the MSRP of a base Camaro from 1969 all the way to 2010, then average the % change each year. That way you are incorporating the technology advances specific to a base Camaro as they become 'standard technology'.

What do you think?
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1969 X77 01B 51 51 flat hood
IZRSSS
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« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2011, 07:35:41 PM »

EXCELLENT IDEA!
« Last Edit: January 17, 2011, 09:15:57 PM by IZRSSS » Logged
IZRSSS
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« Reply #22 on: January 17, 2011, 09:15:21 PM »

DBZ,

Here are the percentage increases for the base Camaro V8, from 1967 through 2002 and then leap forward to 2010;

  • Combined MSRP percentage increases for each of the 37yrs = 38.66%
  • The average MSRP for each of these = 1.07%

If you take the base price for the First Gen V8 of $2,726 X 38.66 the total is $105,387.16...can this be right?

If you would like I can send you the link to the MSRP's...just send me a PM.

Thanks

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mopar346
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« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2011, 09:55:30 PM »

I believe the McKinley act still allow for the ownership of $100 face value of gold coins, did it not? When was collecting gold coins made completely legal again?
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tom
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« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2011, 01:16:23 PM »

Gold stuff (coins, jewelry, teeth, etc) was allowed, not bullion. When that regulation changed (and no I can't remember what year) gold was deregulated, and the price quickly moved from 32 per ounce, to more than 800 per ounce. As far as I am concerned your best benchmark for price comparison is the government published cost of living index.
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« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2011, 04:16:21 PM »

In brainstorming with Marty, we've devised a method in determining the value of the first gen's, in today's prices. We started with looking at the change each year in the MSPR of a base V6 Camaro, from 1967 to 2010. Then we averaged the price changes and arrived at a 5.51% average annual price change over the last 43 years. Compared to the CPI in the same time frame of 4.41%.

For those interested, we also came up with a factor. The factor will help determine (roughly) what the original MSRP would be in today's market. Basically the Camaro Inflation measure. Until I come up with a slick plug-n-play type application, this will have to do:

1967: 10.06312
1968:  9.67371
1969:  9.46198

For example, if you have a 1969 Camaro with an MSRP of $4,490, multiply it by the factor of  9.46198 and you'll get today's estimated MSRP ($42,483).

Keep in mind that these are estimates, but I feel they are a more accurate measurement than the CPI as it pertains to Camaros. I know the MSRP can be subjective from the fact its rarely an actual price paid for a car, but it is probably the most complete record of the price of a Camaro (since MSRP's are generally the same on a base V6 model in Minneapolis and one in Reno).

Anyway, let me know what you think.

Nick
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1969 X77 01B 51 51 flat hood
IZRSSS
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« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2011, 04:58:46 PM »

I can't even begin to tell you the effort Nick has dedicated to this thread. Seems like he has been working none stop for the last 8 hours. There are several charts, figures, and formulas he has developed and used to arrive at these basic formula's we can all use.

Hats off to you my friend. If there is anything you need, don't hesitate to ask...just don't ask me to order you an original AIM. Smiley  
« Last Edit: January 18, 2011, 06:00:16 PM by IZRSSS » Logged
IZRSSS
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« Reply #27 on: October 05, 2011, 12:53:23 PM »

I thought I would share this information from,” What’s My Car Worth” TV.  Hey, it was free so I decided what the hay?  One of these years I hope to have Jerry give it a legitimate appraisal.

Just a brief history; I sent a couple of pics to; mycar@whatsmycarworth.tv along with information on the car. I mentioned the yr, model, and options.  I did not mention the special paint. I didn't think it was necessary, nor did I think Keith Martin would know what the heck I was talking about. Nothing scientific here, I just find it interesting because Keith & Nick's figures are really close (Reply #25). Although I would have to believe Nick's method is more scientific. Here is what Keith had to say about the car while it was on the air...

“In this week’s mailbag Marty has sent us information about this 1969 Camaro RS/SS coupe. It’s fully restored but what really sets it apart is it has 26 factory options. These cars are not highly collectable. They built over 225,512 in '69 so it gets its collectability rating of a "C". And this car only has a 300hp engine. If it comes to market I believe it will sell for 40K.”

It’s all about HP… the Z’s & the BB’s, 350hp or >. However, in this volatile market place I couldn’t be happier with his appraisal on the fly.
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Dusk_Blue_Z
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« Reply #28 on: October 05, 2011, 01:56:43 PM »

Thats cool, I have that on my DVR. I'll watch it tonight.

Although, I think the math we used was to get an idea of how much money it would take to buy your car brand new, in 2011 dollars. Thats not necessarily an appraisal. I think its more of a coincidence that our math was in line with the brief appraisal. If you bought an Impala in 69, its probably not going to be worth $40k today.

But now your car has a TV premium added to it, thats got to be worth at least $20k Wink
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1969 X77 01B 51 51 flat hood
lakeholme
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« Reply #29 on: October 06, 2011, 07:09:28 AM »

Interesting!
Congrats on the TV appraisal.
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Phillip
HNR-AACA, Senior Master
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AACA Southeastern Division Spring Meet Chair
"Charlotte AutoFair, presented by the Hornets Nest Region, AACA, is the largest and greatest Collector Vehicle Event in the Southeast USA."
IZRSSS
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« Reply #30 on: October 06, 2011, 08:48:49 AM »

After listening to his opening statements I didn't know what to expect. After all that, I don't know how he arrived at 40K. Oh well, it is what it is, a SB.

Thanks for your comments.
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« Reply #31 on: October 06, 2011, 07:18:55 PM »

Watched it Tuesday evening Marty and saw your car (or thought pretty sure as I thought, "hey that's Marty's car"). By the way, saw the star of chassing classic cars today at Hershey as he was at my friends stand. Talked to him about ZL1 #63 that was on the show Tuesday evening as well. Interesting........
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IZRSSS
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« Reply #32 on: October 07, 2011, 12:54:07 PM »

Chick - I missed that show on CCC. They must run those shows at least a hundred times or so  Wink , so I hope I can watch it latter on. That's neat you had a chance to talk to Wayne. I would like to have been a fly on the wall listening to your conversation. Very cool.
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