Author Topic: Survival Rate  (Read 2776 times)

DONCZ28

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Survival Rate
« on: April 14, 2021, 01:23:14 AM »
Is there any logical way to calculate survival rate ,of certain camaros, based on the CRG data base..

KurtS

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2021, 03:33:15 AM »
Not really. The data collection is not uniform. And lots of cars that are in garages that are not in the db.
See my post here: http://www.camaros.org/forum/index.php?topic=5444.msg173668#msg173668
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william

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2021, 05:38:51 PM »
I have been logging '69 data for decades. These are cars that definitely exist.

My auction db has 2,223 [net] cars, on-line db has 2,787: 5,010. When I combine the auction and on-line db about 7.5% are in both. Net 4,634.

CRG db has data on 7,081 '69s. As Kurt has stated, many entries are data only. Cars not known to exist. Lets call it 33%. So that's 4,673. Of the remainder, 14% of auction/on-line cars are also in the db. So that's 4,020 net '69s.

4,634 + 4,020 = 8,654. Let's say for every '69 known, there are two that aren't: 25,962 including the full range from perfect original to junk. That's a little over 10% of '69 production. I have a hard time believing it could be higher; it is more likely to be lower.

I regularly see new entries on line and in auction results. However, I also see the same cars over and over. 37% of '69s at auction have run more than once; 3-4 times is common. One COPO in particular has been run 8 times. On-line, same story.

I'm no stats wizard so feel free to challenge these numbers.
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crossboss

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2021, 06:01:37 PM »
'I' would think any vintage car would have a 50% (or less) survival rate. Wrecked, scrapped, parted out, crushed, etc. That said, the very popular models (Camaro, Mustang, etc), MAY have a better survival rate among car people because of demand. This site, along with the devoted members do keep records and the popularity of these cars alive.
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william

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2021, 06:33:10 PM »
The "very popular models" have a high survival rate, defined as SS, Z/28, converts. I think we have data on nearly 30% of Z11 production. The average '69 Camaro is just that.

Industry stats show that by age 12, less than 20% still exist.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Schematic-diagram-of-vehicle-survival-ratio-and-scrappage-rate-functions_fig1_226620148

There is no way 50% of 1st Gen Camaros still exist. I have been involved with '69s for 46 years, seen many in salvage yards, put a bunch there myself. Had many other colleagues doing the same. I picked the dash and axle out of a Yenko Camaro sitting in a junkyard, 1981. Wasn't wrecked, just tired. No one cared. Same yard had many '69s over the years.
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firstgenaddict

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2021, 07:03:33 PM »
In the early 80's we took wrecked and rusty Z28's, GTO's, and 442's to the scrap yard that are orders of magnitude better than the 6cyl cars I see guys start with today.
When scrap metal got so high back in 08-09 many yards and stashes were cleaned out, I saw car after car being drug into the scrap metal processor - IMP - industrial metal processing - next door. 
We sold them 9k worth of scrap steel industrial machinery parts including a single roll 110" wide which weighed 25,000#, 15k in scrap copper wiring packed into gaylords & another 30k in AL scrap that we had accumulated for years in our side yard. 
James
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MO

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2021, 07:17:34 PM »
Fakes and rebodies further compromise the results.

crossboss

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2021, 09:27:34 PM »
Back in the 1980s, I would frequent Pick a Part in LA. Back then, so many neat Muscle Cars were (no pun) getting picked clean. Some were wrecks, some were impounded cars, most were owner turn ins. From what I remember on their TV commercials, Pick a Part would come out to your home, pay you $110 bucks and haul 'em away! Imagine today seeing all of those Camaro Z/28s, 442s, Mach-1s, SS Chevelles, etc waiting to be rescued! 
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william

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2021, 10:04:56 PM »
We would visit the pick a parts while in So CA for the Pomona swap 80s-90s. Saw ONE '69 in a yard, another in the fenced in area in the yard near the Ontario airport. That's it. Between Z & Z and Ralphs, they ended up with most 1st Gens. Many Chevelle 2 door hard tops, Novas, but no SS cars by then.

Found a '67 Z/28 in a PA yard, roof smashed flat. Still had a body tag.
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crossboss

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2021, 02:10:24 AM »
Anyone remember 'Marv's Chevy Only'? They were just down the street from the Pick a Part in Sun Valley.
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Red955i

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2021, 02:27:29 AM »
Black cars, especially black Z/28's, have an amazingly high survival rate  :)

william

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2021, 02:53:22 AM »
Still making them.
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firstgenaddict

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2021, 05:09:00 AM »
Dave Beem bought a Gold 67 Z28 with the 4L TT out of a wrecking yard in Colorado, in the late 80's I believe, latest was maybe the early 90's. The price was late 80's wrecking yard shell prices for any random solid 67 coupe IIRC $800.
I paid $1500 (which included a pair of NOS fenders) at that same time 88-89ish for a complete non running 68 RS/SS 396 project - lemans blue blue dlx

10 10 X33 tags are the most reproduced Tag by far-it's so bad that it seems like more than half the people who own a 10 10 X33 69 Z don't own one with a real tag, and if equipped with an endura, JL8, cowl induction, and hounds tooth - chances are about 100:1 that it's fake.
When I see a black 69 Z28 from an unknown origin I view it with great skepticism, honestly I just assume it's fake until it -the car- proves otherwise. - If I look at the tag and it's real and has no signs of removal I start looking for evidence of how it should be equipped, the more correct the more confident I become the car is legit.   
James
Collectin' Camaro's since "Only Rednecks drove them"
Current caretaker of 1971 LT1's - 11130 and 21783 Check out the Black 69 RS/Z28 45k mile Survivor and the Lemans Blue 69 Z 10D frame off...
https://plus.google.com/photos/112392262205377424364/albums?banner=pwa

MO

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2021, 01:30:40 AM »
Anyone remember 'Marv's Chevy Only'? They were just down the street from the Pick a Part in Sun Valley.

Yep

lynnbilodeau

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Re: Survival Rate
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2021, 12:35:02 AM »
Still a few REAL 10 10 Z/28s out there.

I have one.  Thankfully, it is an X77 car, which isn't counterfeited as often.